Being good does not mean you are electable-The latest opinion survey and the internals – 1
Daily Star-Nielsen Opinion Survey - Image by Daily Star
The latest opinion survey from Daily Star – Nielsen polling did not have any number on the horse race of Awami League and BNP. However, some of the numbers are telling. But first let’s look at the sample of the people who were surveyed.
A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at 5,040 based on standard statistical formula, both from rural and urban areas. The urban-rural distribution of sample reflects the national pattern of population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was November 4-12, 2008. In this quantitative approach, face-to-face interviews were conducted using semi-structured questionnaires.
The interviews were done on 168 spots or PSUs covering 44 districts in 90 electoral constituencies. Thirty individuals were interviewed at each spot. The PSUs were chosen using probability random sampling. The 30 eligible respondents were chosen randomly in selected areas with equal ratio of males and females.
Understanding that the population base is covering a good representation of Bangladeshi folks, let’s look at the numbers. The bit about how satisfied voters are with their local MPs’ performance is what I found to be most interesting in the whole survey. A good 66 percent of our voters are actually not unhappy with their MPs. A typical MP in a rural area has to tend to hundreds of personal errands for his/her voters. ”Please get a job for my son”, “please pay some money for my daughter’s wedding”, “please resolve this land conflict”, “please put tinshed in my house that is leaking after the previous storm” – and many such requests. Asaduzzaman Noor, an Awami League MP, once told me that he goes to his seat every other week and one whole day during these visits, people just queue up to see him and tell him all day these personal issues. So do the MPs actually take care of these issues?
Funnily enough — yes. most of our MPs actually do take care of these issues. Voters are smart enough to know how much of a corrupt person he/she is. However, what they really care about is delivery. Which person is delivering for them and getting things done. Typically, it is the person with the most money, muscle and authority who gets things done and this is where the electability issue comes in.
So this may help explaining two things –
1. Why repeatedly a person may get reelected again and again despite being corrupt and
2. Why our ‘good candidates’ need to focus more on delivery .
But then again, if the good candidates do not have money or muscle, how do they deliver? Also isn’t the same survey saying that being honest is the most important trait the voters expect in their candidate? While being honest is certainly important but I feel the candidates who are honest and good — like that school master we often see in tv dramas — need to invest more on mobilization and getting things done for the people so that on the voting day people are not afraid to vote for them.
This is where the power of mobilization, perhaps, come in. If a person is a true leader in the community and has the leadership capabilities, it should be possible for him/her to mobilize people around him. This is where I feel the development partners should invest their resources — identifying local community leaders and (to use the often used cliche) empower them by standing by them in their initiative.
Two examples come to mind — Rabbani of Kansat and Omar Ali of Moheshshwar Chanda. These two people had reinvigorated their community by working on bread and butter issues for their community. Rabbani is running for election this year. Good news is that like Rabbani, once a community leader has developed, political leaders will automatically come out of that same group. There is a proven model and yet we often despair on the lack of a Mahathir, Obama and good candidates in the country.
Tags: Election Commentary, Polls
I remember talking with some voters in West Bengal when accompanying my journalist friend on election day going around doing interviews.
One conversation with an elderly lady stuck in my head. She said she didn’t care who was corrupt or a “goonda”, as long as they got the job done. And that she would prefer a scoundrel who guaranteed her electricity, water and education for her grandchildren, than a “shot manush” who spoke softly and got trampled over and couldn’t help her at all. She also said that “ektu goonda holey bhalo” as that was proof that they were capable of standing up to Calcutta and Delhi. And as she was saying this, the crowds forming around her, attracted by the TV camera, were voicing their approval emphatically.
Cynicism or an acute understanding of reality in that part of the world?
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Politics is about building coalitions to achieve certain ends. There is absolutely no reason to think that someone with impeccable personal integrity will have what it takes to build coalitions to get things done. For that matter, there is no reason to think that people with technical expertise — in science, law, engineering, health, economics, whatever — will have those skills. Many of us completely failed to grasp this before the coup. Unfortunately, this point was still lost on far too many even after all that has happened since — witness the wailing after the city council elections: shei purano mukh gulai to abar ferot ashlo! And here is a prediction: regardless of the winner on the 29th, we’ll hear a lot about how we have been yet again failed.
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No matter how much SOME voters may enjoy ‘daughters wedding’ gifts from shady mafia politicians, majority of voter are AGAINST the idea of voting them again and again into office. Yet they manage to return, because election rules and laws for democratic accountability and transparency are fundamentally misguided.
Reasons why dysfunctional politics is a reality in Bangladesh (and S.Asia) are:
1) Mafia politicians are not disqualified from elections
there are no prosecution or impeachment laws for mafia polits
2) they are allowed to continue in office
3) they are allowed to bribe people with petty gifts
4) people create no uprise against them
5) parties are not required to eliminate mafia polits
6) parties are NOT required by law to eliminate cadres & mastans
7) some people accept them as “reality” of politics!
9) they cut off the opportunity for genuine leaders
10) bribery and corruption rules the law,
Until PEOPLE and the system drive out mafia politics, the genuine leaders will have NO chance.
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“This is where I feel the development partners should invest their resources — identifying local community leaders and (to use the often used cliche) empower them by standing by them in their initiative. ”
yikes, and therefore completely sap the nascant leader’s integrity (to a lot of people), coopt his/her political capital, and report well to Uncle Tom.
i hope the candidates from health/education backgrounds do well this time. too many contractors and lawyers spoil the lotpoti.
jyoti,
I’m still feeling that democratic punctuations place a unique opportunity to the given biryani cook to organise and graft talent together.
2006-8 still shows that in parts (UGC, Ali Akbar Khan, CS Karim and maybe that Zillur Rahman fella)
…Even though the enterprise might win the Bangladeshi Award for Lamest Attempt with a special mentions for ‘lack of preparation’ ‘listening to the worse advice’ and ‘no visible fundamental thought’.
this is all of course assuming the entire episode wasnt a plot schemed by some whitehall nutter and implemented through a brown muppet at the high commission.
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[...] Voice analyzes the latest opinion poll on the upcoming election in Bangladesh. Posted by Rezwan Print [...]
It is surprising that nobody remembers the true role of MPs in formulating laws, not building bridges and giving wedding gifts to their constituents. If our local government could be empowered, with a District Governor, Upazilla Chairperson, and Union Parishad Chairperson in place and receiving all the development funding allocated to their area, this entire practice of MPs’ malpractice would have disappeared. There wud still be issues with the locally elected leaders being corrupt, but they would have to have accountability towards their constituencies among whom they live and with whom they interact every day.
We tend to forget the systems, and focus on individuals instead, and that is probably where the problem lies. Corruption is not a problem itself…it is a manifestation of deeper systemic problems.
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Rubayat, I wrote about it back in May:
http://unheardvoice.net/blog/2008/05/25/on-devolution/#more-41
While I have had my reservations about the regime’s motives behind the upazilla election, I strongly support them. Since they are happening 3 weeks after the parliamentary poll, the risk of using them for prolonged army presence has lessened.
But let’s be realistic about the outcome of the upazilla election. We’ll very likely see a lot of people whom we’d otherwise call ‘thugs / hooligans / bad elements’ elected to these posts. Why? Because these people will be able to deliver. Suppose you want the road in your upazilla fixed. The ‘honest bhodrolok candidate with an MA’ might be absolutely useless for that, while the local HSC failed guy might to do the trick. The former will be a lonely voice against the government bureaucrats and local contractors. The latter, with the party behind him, will get the job done.
KGazi, I think this beats your ‘computer glitch caused Bangladesh to slip in failed state rating: No matter how much SOME voters may enjoy ‘daughters wedding’ gifts from shady mafia politicians, majority of voter are AGAINST the idea of voting them again and again into office.
We have a survey that shows that 2/3rds of the voters are satisfied with their MP, and you happen to know majority think otherwise. Keep going. I missed the comic relief.
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Fug, I hope some future historian will be able to shed some light on whether ‘the entire episode wasnt a plot schemed by some whitehall nutter and implemented through a brown muppet at the high commission’.
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Jyoti, if 2/3 voters are happy with their MP’s, then the other 1/3 voters must have mafia MP’s whom they are unhappy with. And if that is the case, then 1/3 mafia politicians is too big a percentage for democracy to sustain. There should be ZERO tolerance for mafia politicians in parliament, there should be none.
How can any voter be happy with a MP who secretly steals 10,000 tinsheds donated to a village, and distributes only 1000 of them in a big ceremony, claiming electability. These are NOT the popular MP’s, these are the ones whom voters are unhappy with.
The more you support such “guys who gets things done” the more you support embezzlement, and the more you send the wrong message that corruption is good for governance. The message should be to kick out those mafia politicians – people should gather round and uprise saying “if he is stealing the tinsheds, then we dont want his tinshed and wedding gifts. we want him out”. Instead, your message is – “cool, we want more MP’s like him!!”. Thats totally wrong.
The difference is, the honest leader would donate all 10,000 tinsheds to the villagers, and make 10X more people benefit, from the same resource, without deceiving the people and without being falsely re-elected again by fraud.
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KGazi, my message is not “cool, we want more MP’s like him!!” My message is that there is a reason why people vote the way they do. Failing to understand that reason and simply yelling ‘we must do this and that’ is useless. It is important to fix the system, and one part of it, as Rubayat says, is local government election. But this is going to take time. There is no quick fix and short cut.
Also, you might find it hard to believe, but people usually don’t believe most stories like ‘10,000 tin sheds’. You have your opinions, fine. Don’t claim that these views must be shared by the majority.
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Jyoti – I dont post here for YOU to agree with me, I only do it for my opinion to be heard by others, so that what I feel is WRONG is known by public. We cannot silence anyone from commenting here, just cos they dont agree with you.
You said “people usually don’t believe most stories like ‘10,000 tin sheds”. Thats obvious and thats why they vote for fraud politicians. But the newspapers know, Prothom Alo knows, and I am sure TIB knows, and politiical parties THEMSELVES very well know.
Rubayat is right, we need to fix the system. But until the system is fixed to PREVENT shady mafia politicians from running in elections, then local govt elections will be another waste of money and time. Local govt will be full of frauds.
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