Tea leaves in a crystal ball: predicting the outcome in Dhaka city
My day job involves a lot of forecasting, and one of my former bosses used to say, forecasting is like urinating against the wind, you feel the heat, but everyone else laughs at you. The same is true for predicting Bangladeshi elections. With very few credible opinion polls, little experience of grass root activism, or not much access to political players, it’s difficult to predict the national outcome.
I’m probably not well placed to predict the outcome in Dhaka either. But I am still going to have a crack. Based on an extremely unscientific mix of past election results, media reports, general conversations with random people in public transports / small traders around the town, and adda with friends / family / acquaintance (some of whom are actually quite knowledgeable), below are my predictions for the 15 seats in Dhaka city. Final tally: BNP 7, AL 6, JP 1, WP 1.
Dhaka 4 (Shampur, Jatrabari, Sutrapur) — Sanjida Khanam (AL)
Both parties have new candidates, but media reports suggest AL is ahead. Never been there, so no idea how good the media reports are.
Dhaka 5 (Jatrabari, Demra, Shampur, Sabujbagh) — Salahuddin Ahmed (BNP)
This should have gone to AL, but with a JP candidate in the field (as of Friday), BNP will probably squeak through.
Dhaka 6 (Sutrapur-Kotowali) – Sadek Hossain Khoka (BNP)
Khoka should win, but there was an interesting rumour floating around (heard at Bangshal’s Razzak restaurant): B Chowdhury may win because AL is pulling out, and the Hindu voters in the area have left Khoka.
Dhaka 7 (Lalbagh-Kotowali) — Nasiruddin Ahmed Pintu (BNP)
Dr Mahiuddin is a genuine bhadralok, and Pintu’s criminal record is widely accepted. In 2001, Pintu won there by merely 1,100 votes against Haji Selim, hardly an angel. Still, Pintu seems to ahead there according to people working for both campaigns.
Dhaka 8 (Ramna-Shahbagh-Matijheel) — Rashed Khan Menon (WP)
His crowds are much bigger. Rickshawallas, chatpati sellers, people at tea stalls in Shantinagar, all seem to back Menon. BNP’s Sohel is a rather unknown face here.
Dhaka 9 (Khilgaon-Sabujbagh) – Saber Hossain Chowdhury (AL)
If Saber can’t win this one then AL has no hope whatsoever.
Dhaka 10 (Badda) — Rahmatullah (AL)
Apparently he is outspending BNP’s MA Qaiyum by a few crore taka.
Dhaka 11 (Tejgaon) — Shahabuddin (BNP)
Anecdotal evidence suggests that there is a strong Noakhali factor in this seat, which works against the AL candidate. Plus, Shahabuddin is spending a lot of money around Karwan Bazaar.
Dhaka 12 (Dhanmondi-Hazaribagh-New Market) — Sheikh Fazl-e-Noor Tapash (AL)
He seems to be the darling of the middle class / upper middle class families in that area, and New Market is an AL stronghold. Plus, Mahbubuddin has a reputation of being ‘unapproachable’.
Dhaka 13 (Mohammedpur-Adabar) – Jahangir Kabir Nanak (AL)
Apparently AL’s field organisation is much stronger than BNP’s. However, the wild card here are 30,000 Bihari voters. They may take Alal of BNP over the line.
Dhaka 14 (Mirpur-Shah Ali) — SA Khaleque (BNP)
Khaleque is a godfather in the Mario Puzo sense of the word — that is, most local people are somehow or other indebted to him (recall the line: i have done you a favour, and someday, and that day may never come, i will call on you to do me a favour…). If Khaleque loses then this means there is a massive anti-BNP swing in the country, and Grand Alliance is heading for a 2/3rds majority.
Dhaka 15 (Kafrul-Mirpur) — Hamidullah Khan (BNP)
AL has a rebel candidate here, damaging Kamal Mazumdar.
Dhaka 16 (Mirpur-Shah Ali-Pollobi) — Rafiqul Islam Miah (BNP)
AL’s Illias Mollah doesn’t seem to be much liked.
Dhaka 17 (Gulshan-Cantonment) – HM Ershad (JP)
When all is said and done, the old fox will probably win this comfortably.
Dhaka 18 (Uttara-Kheelkhet) — Sahara Khatun (AL)
In the past 72 hours, I saw 20 AL rallies around Uttara against BNP’s 4. Mrs Zia pulled amazing crowds everywhere else she went, only Uttara seemed lackluster. Also, Sahara seems to have that ‘ordinary people’ appeal like Matia Chowdhury or Dr Dipu Moni.
Tags: Election Commentary
I really hope your prediction on pintu turns out to be wrong. I have a hindu friend whose in laws family got some kind of threat from pintu after he got out of jail.
I just heard in ATN that some youngmen run away leaving lots of money seeing the tohol police in chittagong. They were apparently distributing these money to voters for bnp candidate. If this is the case in ctg proper, then god knows what happening in gram gonjo.
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