What happens now (BNP edition)?
Mrs Zia has said the election results are not acceptable (grohonjoggo noi). Is that a non-rejection rejection? What can she actually do? I don’t think JI wants to go for an andolon. More than anything else, they seek legitimacy. Andolon denies them that. I’m sure BNP stalwarts — the biggest losers — will want a defiant stance, they are not in parliament, so why should they care what happens there? But these bigwigs had never led an andolon themselves. Where are the people who were in the forefront of anti-Ershad movement? Are they going to lead a street movement? Based on what? If she doesn’t join the parliament, then it seems to me that Mrs Zia runs the risk of becoming like Maolana Bhasani — a popular leader with no party or platform.
But what can she actually do in the parliament? BNP has 27 seats, with JI 2 and BJP 1. She has won 3 seats herself, so it’s only 28 bodies. Of these, only MK Anwar and SQ Chowdhury are seasoned parliamentarians. This will be the weakest opposition since 1975 — even Ershad had 49 opposition MPs led by ASM Rab and Shahjahan Siraj. While no one wants a return to andolon politics, and BNP may be incapable of leading one, are they in a place to make any difference in the parliament?
Will they boycott the Upazilla elections? Assuming they happen, the next generation of politicians will come through the upazillas. Around 10,000 people sought to run for these councils. Regardless of what BNP high command says, I doubt people at the grass root level will pull out. And with or without the party support, BNP folks will do much better in these polls than the national numbers suggest. BNP may have less than 10% of seats, but informal calculations suggest it has received over a third of votes cast. In areas like Melandoho, Jamalpur (won by Mirza Azam), BNP vote has gone up since 2001, and AL’s has fallen because the local MP has a poor reputation. It will be suicidal for the BNP high command to boycott these polls.
In the longer term, in a country like ours with myriad problems, it is a near certainty that the incumbent will lose a re-election. In 2014, the opposition coalition will be the favourite. If BNP can navigate the current storm, it has a brighter future. But it is very gloomy for the party now.
What do you think BNP will/should do?
Tags: Election Commentary
Video of the press conference has now been added on top of this post.
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Anti incumbent syndrome is not automatic – it is conditional on the level on the level of corruption and tolerence of terrorism by the incumbent.
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So BNP’s bright future is dependent on the assumption that AL increases its level of corruption and tolerance of terrorism to a greater degree than BNP in their preceding tenure.
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Well, I hope the wallowing in schdenfreude has been very gratifying to everybody concerned. In the meantime, it has been clear from January 2007 that BNP faced a two-step process. First, get rid of the military government and ensure a transition to democracy. And only now, only after this seems to be in the offing (we’ll be sure after parliament and Sheikh Hasina takes oath), can we start worrying about actually winning an election.
A brief reminder, if not for Khaleda Zia, minus-two would have been a success and Kamal Hossein would be taking oath as the next Prime Minister right about now. KZ’s tenacity got Bangladesh in two years where Pakistan took ten years to reach.
Given Bangladesh’s parliamentary system, with the lack of vetoes and filibusters, I really don’t see the difference between getting 130 and 30 seats, except as salve for some personal egos. In fact, if BNP would have gotten 130 seats, the military would have extracted a much heavier concession out of Sheikh Hasina than she will give up now. It is singularly due to the fact that KZ went on the offensive against the military government during the campaigning that Sheikh Hasina now has the political cover to go from “all the military government’s actions will be approved” to “parliament will discuss which of the military government’s actions will be approved.”
BNP has come out battered and bruised at the end of the last two years. Bangladesh has experienced a concerted anti-BNP campaigning season for the last two years. Given that, the results make sense.
Of course, one wishes that Sheikh Hasina and AL governs the country so well that the need for all other political parties is made redundant. But just in the off-chance that does not happen, I think BNP will stick around to see how things go.
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Tacit,
Instead of wallowing in self pity and trying to squeeze counterintuitive logic out of the massive verdict given by 50% of the 87% of the electorate who voted in the free-est election since 1971, you are still harping on through a selective lens and looking backwards with a vengeance.
Here are some constructive ways you can play a role as one of the blind supporters of the defeated party:
1. Instead of looking at history starting on 1/11, think about what led to that. You talk about “trasition to democracy” after 1/11, but by that you mean the real thwarted “neel noksha” with 10 million fake voters and politicized state apapratus. Nowhere do you address the unbridled corruption and violence, militancy (August 22, bangla bhai) and instead you focus again on the “aposh hin” diva image which the people have clearly rejected.
2. Instead of asking for introspection as to why this debacle happened (ignoring militancy (”bangla bhai is media creation”), sycophancy, turning blind eye to corruption, vengeance politics (’dant bhanga jobab”), communal hatred (”mosjider bhetor uludhoni”), bikriti of history, alliance with war criminals and terrorists (”amra eki poribarer shodosho”) you whine about KZ not getting fair recognition for heroic role to save the country (and by that you really mean her family and their loot). The people think differently.
3. Why not put out a call to BNP to abandon Jamaat, ditch communally charged language and posturing, vow they will never try to rig elections agani, purge party of corrupt individuals, rather than complain about “anti BNP campaign for 2 years”. In this age of digital media, blogs, SMS, mobile coverage across the country, the old methods of capturing and holidng on to state power don’t really work.
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Thanks moving ahead. I was actually little shocked having read tacit as he bypassed the issue why 1/11 happened in the first place and went straight onto the contribution of KZ in regaining democracy. Its a twisted. About the negative campaign complain – well no body concocted anything. Thirdly about SH remark on “all the military government’s actions will be approved” to “parliament will discuss which of the military government’s actions will be approved.” – this view has to be contextualized. When she said all actions will be approaved, it was I guess only March 2007, things didn’t develop fully by then. There is nothing herioc about KZ regarding this. (Tacit) Please get off your high horse, and try to accept things as they are.
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A good come back strategy for BNP would to win the upozilla election. This is where all the energies should be invested now rather whining on such issue as “anti BNP campaign for 2 years”.
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One of the good thing about the 29th December election was that it enables us to move forward from January 11, 2007’s military coup and again think about what a democratic government can do for our country. Reportedly, twenty million new voters voted in the election. Our future rests on how many of them will be able to feed themselves and their families three square meals a day two years from now. As ridiculous as that sounds, that is how low the bar is set for our governments: not meaningful employment, not a competitive education, but just the ability to be free from hunger, would mean that the government had done its duty.
Of course, it will be up to the AL government to decide how much of the military government’s legacy they will endorse. In 2014, the voters will decide whether the past five years were just a continuation of 2007-2008 or a real clean break. The military government leaves office with not a single charge proven against Khaleda Zia or her two sons. The corruption charge filed against ACC chief Lt. Gen (rt) Hasan Mashud Chowdhury remains shelved. Now, Justice Habibur Rahman Khan has alleged, after five months of working with the ACC, that most of their cases were politically motivated.
When Sheikh Hasina said “all the military government’s actions will be approved,” she was giving in to the minus-two and leaving Bangladesh; now when she says “parliament will discuss which of the military government’s actions will be approved,” she is the head of a parliamentary majority large enough to make her the next PM. I think that’s context enough.
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Tacit, since you want context, here it is.
When the people of Bangladesh look back on 2007-8 in the bigger scheme of things, they will look at what came before it. Corruption, law and order collapse, rise of militancy, a debasing of political rhetoric and actions to the lowest common denominator, abuse of religion, unchecked sycophancy, and so forth. Apart from the abuse of religion, similar accusations have been made (including by you, previously) about the 72-75 period and the supposed need for a non-democratic period right after in order to pave the way for future greatness. Nothing is happening now that we haven’t seen before, the players and benefactors are just different. And as people here and elsewhere keep arguing, the odds are stacked against AL for success.
You refer to schadenfreude, perhaps you are using the maliciously fabricated and disgustingly commemorated August 15th birthday of the almighty aposh-hini as a benchmark?
Or the opposition-less election of February 96 or 10 million fake voters to win at any cost when you talk of transition to democracy as the ultimate goal?
As for the charges against the sons, I think we all know that as with everything in Bangladesh this is a negotiation. The moves of the chess game have not been finished yet.
The blind Zia family supporters who are so despondent about the inability to steal the election in 2007, should think themselves lucky that the world has moved on and an August 15th solution (which you have previously argued was necessary) and that Madam will have a chance (if she remains in good health, as we hope she does) to face the electorate again (she has already just had one). In another era, with players as viscous, ruthless, and immoral as those whose legacy the so-called centre right has inherited, the entire Zia family would have been finished off on 1/11.
So, quit complaining, count your blessings, move on, and play the positive and scruitnous role that an opposition is supposed to play in a parliamentary democracy
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The unfairness of the pst two years and internal failures of imagination should be quitely understood by the bnp. reading them flaying about in the newspapers blaming everybody but themselves is cringeworthy.
They probably dont have the kudos to put forward their grievance and be heard in the self congratulatory atmosphere at the moment. ‘Just get on with it you losers’ is the vibe from the donors, the powers, the ctg, and no suprise the AL.
Think about this for a moment. what ability do the ‘international election observers’ have of spotting strange things done by a very crafty political party and an organised military in a scenario where the people have swallowed the technological purity of the voting process.
Even if it makes a small difference to how much the bnp were thrashed by its important….. unless its only the raw result that matters.
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I dont know whether tacit is implying the 20 million new voters did all the magic. If it did then this is exactly the reason why AL had problem with the 2006 voter roll. Secondly if these 20 million are marginalized citizens of Bangladesh than obviously they care only about 3 square meals and certainly they would vote for the party who can provide that and most natuarlly these people are not in domain of BNP so it makes sense to keep them out of the voter roll like they were in the former. Tacit please note feeding 20 million hungry people is no easy task; in fact these where BNP failed which why they are ousted. Meaningful employment, human capital all these rest on the fact that people have the nutrition first so that they can extract the benifit from education and emplloyment later. Hence, keeping this marginal group out of poverty should be good indicator of government’s acheivments.
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Tacit, good to see you back here after a long time.
I am a little concerned by the ease at which some of the above comments seem to imply that 1/11 was an inevitable consequence of what came before it without addressing the rights and wrongs of that chain of events.
I hope we are not advocating military intervention as an acceptable means of resolving issues we cannot seem to tackle democractically. If so, how do we silence those who say 15th August was necessary (even if unfortunate). Or if at some point in the near future, sufficient numbers are unhappy with this new government … And I wonder whether the commentators would take the same approach if the results were BNP 230 and AL 29.
On the issue of what next for BNP, let’s not forget that BNP and its allies still got more than 1 in 3 votes – not the complete whitewash that the seat results would suggest at all – and a lesson that BNP as the victor ignored in itself in 91 and 01. Just as AL has had to do on several occasions, I think a major part of its future strategy is to look at how to translate its core support into success given the electoral system, but in a positive way as opposed to the negative ways of the past (eg Jamaat alliance, intimidation of minority voters etc).
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Udayan are you serious? If election happened in Jan 07, we would definitely has 230+ BNP (maybe more), then people like you would be calling for military intervention (or foreign intervention) like in 2001.
Everyone (apart from the loser party) has said election was free and even most free since 1971. So, we should be happy with last 2 years, no?
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Hi Udayan, no one is actually suggesting that military rule is acceptable or blaming what came before 1/11 to have caused it; what is debated here is point by Tacit who stresses the point that that its because of KZ we got back to the road of democracy again – i mean because of her “aposh-hin” stand. Well when she said she won’t go abroad for treatment and would make whatever medical facility available in the country – I also admired that very much. Thats like a voice of powerful leadership. But in no way the role of SH should be discounted in the process. She managed to to pressure on the CTG government (even though this time it was a military backed, foreign diplomats backed, united nations backed 1/11 CTG), and even after filling of cases she returned though her return her blocked by the ultra reactionary CTG Advisor Barr Mainul Hossain and others. These are real struggle for people, for democracy.
Now people have given their verdict; KZ sought forgiveness but Bangladeshis didn’t forget or forgive. People’s choice should be accepted and respected. BNP should wait for AL’s mistakes to stage a comeback and also reinvent their political philosophy and clean their image as an uneqivovally pro-liberation force.
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I don’t remember arguing that August 15th was necessary. If you will point out the link, I will be glad to refute the comment. Otherwise, the accusation is unfounded.
I will say though, even though the last two years of military rule were different from the massacre of August 1975, there is, in my mind, no way to condemn one and accept the other.
I think feeding the twenty million new voters would be a massive accomplishment, and would justify the AL’s massive mandate. I also find it mildly interesting that so much more space has been devoted, in this website, to how the BNP should behave in the opposition rather than how AL should behave in the treasury bench. And no column space at all has been devoted to the post-election violence directed at BNP party members and their family.
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The MPs-elect of the BNP and its allies Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami and Bangladesh Jatiya Party did not take oath today — this is exactly what BNP should not do. This is a sign of uncooperative behavior – an element of olitics of conflict and division. SH has told her newly elected MPs the essence of honestly and has directed all to remain honest and responsible towards their duties – this is a much welcome act. Also SH has direct new MPs to study more and use the parliament’s library and cyber corner.
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it would be a mistake if the bnp were to listen to advice from their political ‘enemies’ and move to become a party like them with exactly the same take on secularism, history in south asia and the cult of mujib.
As neither a proponent of 1930s islamism nor of cultural blank slate provincialism it could be a practically orientated, binding, cohesive and integrative force.
regaining its honour however is going to be difficult, part of why there are few column inches (despite a 60 year old jamat supporting lady being hacked to death on firday afternoon) is that the BNP alliances ability to be heard has decreased dramatically. This is with their perceived corruption, the gains made by their foes over the past 2 years and their low number of seats. The newspapers are showing different colours also, there will be an awami centric swing in their postures if there wasnt already over the 01-06 period.
the superficiality of the ctg period and the intelligensias failure to reflect can be read all over this drunken triumphalism and fullfillment of stereotype.
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Just consider what a tight situation she (KZ) is now. She lost election with worst result so far, had to send her two sons aboard with guarantee that they would not be in politics in near future. If you look into her past performance, you would see how dependent she was on her son and close mentors of disrepute history.
Now Koko is facing the inquiry of the US authority for money laundering. Her (KZ)action or inaction will be defined under this backdrop. She will not be able to rise above her personal family dilemma. She does not have that aptitude or capability. If her sons are brought to trial, she will take her party to street. But there is no way out for her sons as USA, UN and other foreign govts. are getting involved. These issues would have a lot of ramification on her actions in BD politics. And I think it would put BNP in even worse situation, because, louder the BNP leaders (blind supporters) shouts that these are all lies, the more it will be away from people’s favor. The true story is out and BNP cannot put the ghost back into the sack. It will be a hard time.
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Mr.Rudro how right you are! for writing abt the ghost out of the sack/gene out of the bottle, the rest is history and the moral of the story is those who sow the wind must reap the storm! never,ever forget dear Rudro average homestead experienced one meal ahead of starvation for the past few years – till even date.
our hon’ble commerce minister Mr.Faruk Khan recently stated that, reduction in fuel prices will reduce transportation cost of commodities hence,drastic fall in prices. unfortunately last night the smiling/grinnning hon’ble finance min Mr.Muhith got the certificate from ex-adviser mirza a islam that Tk.2/- reduction, will open the floodgates of goodies. mr.muhith then hit out that, their 15,000 crores debt to be met??? our farmers subsequently reiterated that, Tk.2/- will hv zero effect on general public.
i dare say transport owner M.Ps.will reap 2nd windfall!!!
hv a nice day!
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