Questions raised by the upazilla election
In different threads, readers have asked that we write about the upazilla election. The majority view is that there were significant malpractices in these elections. The media reports certainly point to malpractices — intimidations of voters and opposition members, by the ruling party, including a sitting MP and a serving minister has been reported. The allegations, if true, are condemnable with no ifs and buts. It will be a good test of the Election Commission’s alleged independence and the government’s sincerity to see if the allegations are examined and redressed. But these reports are widely available in the media, and there isn’t really much else to say about them. Instead, I will write about a couple of questions that have puzzled me.
1. What good is the voter list?
In Rumi bhai’s 1/11 post we have had nearly 100 comments about the success and failure of the last regime, particularly when it comes to holding the last parliamentary election under a ‘fraud-proof’ voter list. There seems to be a general agreement that the parliamentary election was of a better standard than the upazilla election. If this is true, then surely it follows that a better voter list in and of itself doesn’t improve the election process. A better voter list is an important ingredient. But malpractices like voter intimidation and ballot box stuffing can happen regardless of the voter list.
Doesn’t this support the contention that the last election could have been held much earlier?
This is not to say the improved voter list is useless. It’s not. But nor is it a panacea for all our voting ills.
2. How come the turnout dropped so much, or did it after all?
The parliamentary election saw a voter turnout of 87%, compared with about 75% in 2001 and 1996, and 50-55% in all generally accepted fair elections in 1991 and earlier. BNP pundit Mahmudur Rahman points to this high turnout as an ‘evidence’ of malpractice in that election, even though in over 20 of the seats won by BNP the turnout was higher than the national average. Interestingly, Daily Naya Diganta, hardly a pro-AL paper, had this in its front page on 30 Dec: Bipul utshahe vote grohon, kendro gulote upche pora vir .
Contrast this with widespread media report of low turnout during the upazilla election. This ought not to surprise anyone. After all, much of January saw a lot of post-election / pre-election violence, turning off many voters. And even where there weren’t violence, many voters might have thought ‘what’s the point, AL has thumping majority and will do whatever it wants (for good or ill) regardless of my upazilla chairman’. Indeed, it wasn’t, and still isn’t, clear exactly what is the upazilla councils are in charge of. So it is quite logical that the turnout would fall.
And then when the numbers came in, the upazilla election turnout turned out to be over 70%.
What is going on?
One story is that the new voter registration system requires a lot of effort on behalf of the voter. Whereas under the old system, the Commission would send its agents door-to-door like a census, under the new system it is the voters who have to take the trouble of visiting a camp and stand in a line and so on. If you have done all these, it shows that you are more likely to vote, and the turnouts would be higher compared with previous elections.
If this story is true, then total votes cast as a proportion of total voting age population shouldn’t be so high for the parliamentary election, and should be much lower than 70% for the upazilla election. This is a testable proposition. I don’t have the data handy, but can anyone with access to BBS or UN demographic data have a crack?
3. Doesn’t this election show that politicians can’t be trusted and the caretaker government is needed after all?
If the upazilla elections were worse than the parliamentary election, then it follows that elections can’t be left to politicians and caretakers were better. On the face of it, that certainly looks true. And for me, this is difficult. I’ve always held the view that the caretaker system as introduced in 1996 was a terrible idea. It absolved the politicians of all responsibility to work with each other. It politicised the higher judiciary. And in Nov 2006 we saw that this system couldn’t guarantee a competitive election after all.
But now it seems that caretakers run better elections after all. Or do they?
4. If these elections were so bad, then how come the opposition did better here than in the parliament election?
Look at the numbers. Of the 300 parliamentary seats, 23 are in various city council areas where upazillas aren’t the local government unit. Of the 277 non-city council seats, BNP won 29 — a ratio of 10.5%. According to the initial results, BNP won 79 out of 477 upazillas — a ratio of 16.6%. So under worse circumstances, BNP did significantly better?
It looks even more curious when we look at Jamaat’s results. It got 2 seats in the parliament — or 0.7% of non-city seats. It won 20 upazillas, or about 4.2%.
Forget about the malpractices. AL was expected to sweep these elections anyway. Not only did it happen only a few weeks after its landslide parliamentary win, its candidates could (and did) campaign credibly that as the ruling party, it was better able to deliver local development. Seen in this light, BNP and Jamaat’s performance is very respectable.
What is going on?
Fellow blogger Farhan has one explanation.
Well in many cases there were multiple AL candidates in many of the constituency that BNP-JI won. Say for example the Sylhet 4 JS constituency that I was following, is made up of 3 UZ – Gowinghat, Jaintapur and Companyganj. In Gowinghat BNP and in Jaintapur the JI candidate won because of two powerful AL candidates in each of them. Also in a few other UZ in Sylhet it seems there were large number of disallowed votes. I don’t now about the rest of the country though.
In theory, both sides should be plagued by multiple candidates. One possibility is that with political survival in line, BNP and Jamaat candidates unified under the strongest candidate, whereas complacency (and a piece of government patronage) meant every AL-er with half a chance stayed in the race.
It would be interesting to see if this pattern, or indeed any other pattern, holds true in other areas where BNP-JI won upazillas but lost in the parliament election.
Whatever the reason, anyone wishing Bangladeshi democracy well should be be glad about these results. Yes there were significant anomalies. But despite them, the main opposition had a respectable showing, and that has to be good for democracy.
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Bottomline:
If I take away anything from these two elections, it is that ensuring that people can come out and vote is the most important thing. Voter list is a part of that. But an intimidation free atmosphere is perhaps even more important.
(Disclaimer: I was in Dhaka on 29 Dec and saw the election first hand in Uttara, Dhaka University, Lalbagh, Sutrapur, Mohammedpur, and Savar. I saw a lot of enthusiasm for the upazilla election in Cox’s Bazaar, Ghazipur and Mymensingh in the first half of January. I wasn’t in Bangladesh during the upazilla election. The post relies exclusively on publicly available material, and not on my observation).
(Cross-posted at Mukti)
Tags: Election Commentary
[...] (More at UV) [...]
dude, you dont seem that worried. and normally when you get worried, i get worried. i think this is serious despite the League’s massive majority.
folks seem stuck in some Obomberlike fuzzy cloud.
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I like to reiterate that if AL wants to regain its trust among general people, they need to ask EC to cancel all Upazilla election results at the disputed areas. More than 50% election results should be canceled based on the reports from the ground.
I like to remind that total setup by AL in Upazilla election in Munshigonj areas won’t be acceptable. AL thought that this is the only Goldmine left for them since Padma Bridge will be built and will able to maximize their corrupt money with this election setup in that areas. Since I am from that area and I can speak more with facts and ground reports for this case. This is the high time for AL to be credible for the next 5 years. They should cancel all Upazilla election results from these areas as soon as possible.
AL was so greedy that one case AL dished your own 25 yrs honest veterans leader from this area and failed him with vote rigging and set-up since he won’t allow any corruption in that areas for Padma Bridge. Before your mask gets out to the public, it’s your own benefit to make it honest, make it better and make it right NOW. I will keep pressuring AL/EC to cancel these disputed results until you fix it yourself. If you do not do, your credibility will be worst soon.
I will work to save poor people wealth and their future in that areas. I hope someone in AL is listening my call. God bless poor people in that areas.
Shortcut to: http://bangladesh-web.com/view.php?hidRecord=243597
Regards,
M. M. Chowdhury
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Khaleda Zia won the parliamentary seat in Feni 1 with a comfortable margin of about 55000 votes. In fact, BNP won all three constituencies in Feni. Feni 1 includes Fulgazi, Parsuram, and Chagolnaya Upazilas. Interestingly, in Fulgazi and Parsuram upazila, awami league supported candidates won. In particular, I know the guy who won in Fulgazi. He was my classmate from primary to college and was a member of Hazari’s class committee. Prothom-alo had an article on him and others on January 20 (http://www.prothom-alo.com/archive/news_details_home.php?dt=2009-01-20&issue_id=1166&nid=MjEzNzY=). He used to control the Feni Pilot High election center in previous elections (pre-1991) and cast votes for Hazari. Now he is the elected Chairman of Khaleda Zia’s home Upazila.
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“Whatever the reason, anyone wishing Bangladeshi democracy well should be be glad about these results. Yes there were significant anomalies. But despite them, the main opposition had a respectable showing, and that has to be good for democracy.”
Being someone who wishes Bangladeshi democracy well, I couldn’t be more offended by your comment. If anything, this takes democracy in Bangladesh back to where it was. To being subject to muscle power. And that should make no one happy regardless of political daan-baam.
Its becoming clear day by day why dreaming of dinbodol was a stupid thing to do.
29th December. Fair election. A new beginning. 22nd January. Shambolics. Massive rigging. Government says ‘proman pele bebostha newa hobe’. Just like in the olden days.
Appointment of 32 ministers only. Lots of new faces. Good. Easy on the public purse. 18 days later six new ones appointed and more to come. What was the point again?
25th January. Return to Parliament. A new era. Promises of a functional Parliament. Therefore, promise of deputy speaker being from the opposition. On the day, all goes out of the window. Return of the walkout culture. Terrible speech by a compromised president.
28th January. Ruling party on a roll. Confines opposition to a corner in the parliament and nails a victory at the cost of functional parliamentary democracy for the next 5 years (at least).
Anyone wishing democracy well should be majorly pissed at this point.
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Could election be held earlier? I dont it should have, because many of the electoral reforms were not evevn started. Voter Register was ready 6 months before elections, but:
1. CTG’s deadline was December
2. many important ordinances were released since July
3. the 2 begums were not mentally ready
4. judiciary was still playing with the law
5. corrupticians were in and out
6. the chess pieces were not ready yet !!
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Kgazi, why would CTG be held responsible for not holding the election earlier than they did! Right after taking over the rein, if my recollection does not fail me, CTG proclaimed their intention to hold election within 2008 when their popularity was at the peak. I remember, both AL / BNP and others agreed and did not raise any objection.
Apart from that, Jyoti, I guess the political game will be played like this going forward. Slowly but gradually you will find news like this:
In that AL will be very eager to establish that CTG has no place in politics. We must have confidence in our reverred (!!!) politicians. So let BNP trust the confident hand of AL to conduct election. On the other hand, BNP and its pros will keep repeating, after all we can not trust AL’s trusted hand. I am not sure what would you think Jyoti! Next election under the control of AL or another CTG!
Thanks
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Rakib, I agree CTG held their promise of Dec elections, agreed by all, and why should they change that date? Of course, the ‘2 begums’ kept trying to derail OTHER electoral changes, and kept insisting on “immediate elections” since September 08.
Thereby, many more reforms did not get done. Shongshod will be struggling, like before, without those reforms, and we are seeing results of those problems already.
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Scenerion # 1.
BNP leader and former lawmaker Manzurul Ahsan Munshi has been taken to custody for violating the Election Code of Conduct. The police arrested Munshi from Mohammadpur polling centre of Debidwar upazila in Comilla at 3-30pm on Dec 29 election day. And in a swift justice, he was soonhanded seven years imprisonment by the EC.
Scenerio # 2.
In Belkuchi Upazilla of Sirajganj, curent livestock minister Abdul Latif Biswas stayed all day during Upazilla election and supervised block by block takeover of all polling centers, neighborhoods. Detail reporting on this is available in many newspapers. A detail two page report was published in yesterday’s Manabzamin. And our election commission is still “looking into the matter”.
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Besides intimidation, the lack of enthusiasm might be another reason for low turnout. Upazilla election is anticlimactic right after the huge adrenaline rush of the parliament election. After the FIFA world cup final, there are not many viewers for the 3rd-4th place determination game.
% win shows better results for BNP, (sadly) for Jamat too. That does not negate the irregularities of the election. The unlawful activities of at least one MP and one minister are well documented. EC should start the legal proceedings immediately. The Honorable PM should ask the controversial minister to submit resignation. Even if the minister in question is otherwise very honest and competent, he has to GO. I believe he broke the law just by being there; correct me if I am wrong. If I am right, then no further proof is required to drop him from the cabinet. Draw parallel to the recent conviction of Ted Stevens, the Alaskan Senator. The whole Alaska is indebted to him for 45 years of uncompromising service. But the senator did some minor mistakes – he had to go. That is how you establish and uphold the sanctity of a system.
On the other hand, let’s not play Rush Limbaugh; every single mistake should not be a cause to pray for the failure of the government. We can not accept the faults, but that should not be reason to cry for 2 year long CTG/semi-military governance. If government does not listen, let’s work together so that people can pay them back in next election. To ensure the payback, we should fight to attain the heart and soul of democracy, Free-Fair election. I am asking pragmatic AL supporters to call for the resignation of the alleged minister from the cabinet, even if EC fails to take action. We can’t afford any more generals, good or bad.
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Fug, yes it is very serious. And yes, I am worried. I am worried that AL hasn’t fully gasped the consequences of the politics of dokhol. But I don’t believe in hyperentilating. If you look through the archives, you will see that even when our republic seemed near collapse I wasn’t screaming ‘gelo gelo’, so I am not going to start now. Societies and political culture changes slowly. It will take lot more than 1/11 and other such ‘time outs in pavillion’ (to use your phrase) or one election victory for our politics to improve. I accept that, so while I worry about AL’s actions, I don’t worry that the end is nigh.
I did worry that BNP politics was finished. In the early 1970s, we had a real one party state because anti-AL parties of both left and right ceased to matter. And it was that political vacuum which was filled by the tragedies of Aug and Nov 1975. I worried that if BNP ceased to exist as a meaningful force, we might see a repeat of 1975. I am glad that BNP has shown signs of life in this election. That makes me less worried.
Noakhali, I am sorry I have offended you. Yes, you are right. This takes us back to where we were, or rather where we would have been had the 22 Jan election had taken place with everyone’s participation and AL came out the winner. If you thought that the experiment of the past 2 years would have made leaps and bounds improvement, then I am afraid there will be lot more disappointment to come.
Rakib/Rumi bhai, you both raise very important questions. I think instead of worrying that ‘our democracry is doomed, bring back jolpai’, let’s have a discussion about the future of the caretaker system. SC’s point not withstanding, suppose we assume that AL can’t be trusted with the parliament election. Can we then trust AL to not game the caretaker system as it exists (apppoint a partisan Chief Justice, put in party hacks in the Election Commission, follow everything BNP was accused of in late 2006)?
Ideally, we want a mechanism that allows reasonable elections without creating conditions for another 1/11. It is self evident that the current system doesn’t allow that. It also appears that the EC independence is still only in name, and therefore a partisan administration isn’t going to work. Then what is the alternative?
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SC -”If government does not listen, let’s work together so that people can pay them back in next election……….I am asking pragmatic AL supporters to call for the resignation of the alleged minister”
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Two points here –
1) lets wait till next election to payback ?
2) call for resignation of minister ?
To wait till next election is too long, by that time damage will be too deep. we MUST have means to change NOW. Poverty and backwardness cannot wait till 2013.
Resignation of minister is always a STICKY issue for AL-BNP, they just dont like FIRING their elected ministers, no matter how criminal they are. They feel by firing minister, their own reputaion is being attacked. So they try to defend their corrupt colleague. This practice needs to go. And like Gov. Blagojevich of Illinois, those ministers must be IMPEACHED immediately.
AL will gain much more popularity by firing their corrupt colleagues – AL ministers please note.
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KGazi – Unfortunately, the final check will arrive at 2013. There is no shortcut.
Like you, I want to see everything going right from this moment: rickshaws in single lane, abiding traffic light, retired and tired primary school teacher from Chagolnaiya is not sitting under the tree in front of education building, dried tear drops on his cheek, waiting to pay 20% of his pension and his dignity to get the rest back to Chagolnaiya, Dhaka University publishes exam results in two weeks, my sister can walk through the road in the middle of the night, we are settling policy debates without brick battles, at least one War Criminal is in jail after DUE process, politicians resigns taking responsibility for failure, how about SH and KZ debating without calling each other enemy of the state?
But, like Joyti, I have to repeat socio-cultural change is painfully slow. No force will work out. Interim payback? You and I, we call them every single time. By doing so, we will make sure that no mf stands between people and ballot box in 2013. The rest will hopefully fall in place slowly but surely. Some politicians will realize that they have to go back there and beg for vote. I am not for removing a legitimate government by any other means, specially not by military.
Could this government miserably fail and make it worse? Sure it could, but let’s pray and cooperate that they don’t and good will prevails.
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SC – I am not voting for removing govt by military, at any time. Nor am I suggesting we analyse Hasina’s hair-style every day !
I am saying that for blatantly criminal and violating Ministers /MP’s, there must be a shortcut. THEY must not hang around till 2013. They are the problem virus in govt, and must be removed – ASAP.
Repeatedly, civilian govts in Bdesh have no record of firing corrupt and criminal ministers/MP’s. That’s what I am saying needs to change. Ministers and MP’s must never be lifetime jobs , but must be subject to merit & accountability, and NOT wait till 2013 for that to happen.
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I am in total agreement with you. I want it RIGHT NOW. He Violated the laws, specially in the most vital organ of democracy – voting rights. He MUST GO.
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Kgazi and SC, please put your voice in the media, that’s the change we were dreaming for long time. They won’t change unless we people from all walks of life keep preesuring thenm and stop the loop hole to hide their corrupt money (either its in foreign countries). Media even an internet based media is powerful to root out this kind of cancer, abuse of power with thugs.
M. M. Chowdhury
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“Minister Latif sued for poll offence
Faces 2-7 years jail term, if guilty; daughter, AL men co-accused; judicial probe ordered” — sure some progress.
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