Full budget available at the ministry of finance website in Bangla and English. Remarkable.
Drishtipat Writers’ Collective’s Syeed has his pre budget hope here
Traditionally, major reforms are initiated during the initial years of an incumbent government, since the political government become reluctant to take drastic approaches towards the end of its tenure, especially before the next election. The first budget of this government is being announced at a desperate time when our exports and employments are threatened by the global economic recession and worsening power shortage. Desperate time calls for desperate measures and what better time than now for finance minister to take bold steps to revive the financial sector! The first cut should be the deepest.
Finally the leaked budget is officialy published. Like all budget it has it’s positives. PPP initiative is the unique feature of this budget . Who will be beneficiary of PPP ? Can we keep the looters away from it ? Will have to wait and see. Will we be able to implement enhanced ADP ? History doesn’t say so. You may have to pay 25% to 30% income tax on your legal earnings, but can get away with paying only 10% if it’s Black !!!!!!! This whitenning scheme is for three years. I hope we all understand where it’s leading to . With almost Five billion dollars in the deficit, it’s already looking a daunting task. For me , it’s not budget which is the driving force, it’s governance.
[Reply]
I tried very best to get home ASAP to listen to the budget speech by the finance minister. I asked my wife what had happened to the opposition. She quipped, ‘At the Gulshan parliament with a few of her party followers’.
I think the BNP is looking for opportunities to non-cooperate with the government by raising silly issues outside the parliament. It is actually hurting itself by doing so. Even this morning majority of the office goers were confident of BNP joining the parliament. But unfortunately Khaleda Zia chose not to do so.
The government should be upbeat about its performance so far.
Foreign reserves is at a record high. Inflation is under tight control. Growth rate is hovering around 6%. And above all the economic management team is doing a great job.
[Reply]
someone Reply:
June 12th, 2009 at 1:52 am
how will that help? has the gdp per capita risen at par with prices of the market basket?
as far as i seen it crime extortion and all the bad elements are on the rise
[Reply]
jyoti Reply:
June 14th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Yes, GDP per capita has risen even after accounting for inflation. Real GDP grew by 5.9% in the last fiscal year, and the forecast for this year 5.5-6%. Population growth is estimated to be around 1.5%. This means real GDP per capita is rising by 4-4.5% a year.
[Reply]
Recession Reply:
June 12th, 2009 at 1:58 am
Jaffar:
“I think the BNP is looking for opportunities to non-cooperate with the government by raising silly issues outside the parliament. It is actually hurting itself by doing so.” – This is correct. But to put it in right perspective, it was same with AL. Whoever didn’t won, took it to see that they created all sorts of hindrance for the one in power. In fact after BNP took over power in past, Hasina told that she will not allow BNP to stay in peace even for a day.
Mine here is not to support BNP in the wrong thing they are doing. But it happens because of what happen in past. And of course we need to break the shackle from past.
PPP is a great idea if implemented properly.
10% vs. 25% : An amazing creation of God knows who! That honest earners will give upto 25% while anyone earning black money can continue to invest paying 10%. Now what happens if some one decides tomorrow to stop paying 25% and instead keep gathering the money and on third year whiten the black money!
More importantly the rationale of whitening the black into white is wrong. During past, specifically during CTG, many blasted the idea. Time to see what happens now! Approved, I guess.
[Reply]
moral of the budget protect the rich and poor and rip the middle class off as much as you can
this is pure absurdity, 35% tax on legally earned money while 10% on illegally earned money 900 taka tax on sim cards and and 25% tax on cell phones 200% tax on air conditioners and cars while the MP’s get duty free on such stuff
good picture of digital bangladesh, all those people who cried for democracy in bd during fakruddins time here is the fruit of your labour.
you all fall for the illusion. It is an autocracy either the shiekh dynasty or the zia dynasty. either ways it is always the middle class you get sodomized in every step of the way
[Reply]
Tamim Reply:
June 12th, 2009 at 3:12 am
disagree. middle class is the largest group of people in bangladesh who are morally corrupt. they have been milking this nation for longest amount of time, ripping off the poorest 70%. while corruptions at top levels are often highlighted; corruption, abuse, attempts to enslave others by middle class officials, businessman, teachers, housewives are either ignored or looked at with sympathy. Bangladesh’s middle class are the true “shubidhabadi” people who rarely paid for their dishonesty. originated from british “mosaheb” or “kerani” culture they have been the most effective tool to maintain status quo. I dont see why largest group of bangladeshi citizens (ranked at lower class, I suspect could be over 70% of the total population) should give a damn for middle class hypocrisy.
[Reply]
Haroon Reply:
June 12th, 2009 at 10:42 pm
I agree with Tamim to a certain extent. It is the clerks and peons in government offices who gobble up a big portion of the corrupt money poured into their pockets to get work done. But its is also the so called morally corrupt business elites and intellectually corrupt higher middle class folks who will take any side to defend their self-interests at the expense of the rural majority.
A blogger even after owning 10 flats in Dhaka is not willing to pay extra VAT on allegedly two vacant flats. He is blaming the government for this. If he is an expat he should be more obliged to do so to put some extra money into the state coffer as a social security deposit for the poor. Just joking! If he can produce the right auhenticated papers for vacancy he should not have any problem with the DCC. There are many immoral animals in Dhaka who use suites and flats in posh Gulshan and Baridhara residential areas for prostitution, drug laundering, storing smuggled goods and other anti-social activities. The government should hunt down these criminals and penalize these scums by imposing a 1000 times the normal VAT and imprisonment at the same time. In many civilized countries including Washington, DC the supposedly elite class criminals are caught on hidden video cameras and their names are published in local dailies to expose their identity to the public.
It is annoying to see many people using Drishtipat to spread propaganda against the elected government.
[Reply]
Mohammad Reply:
June 13th, 2009 at 2:05 am
” If he can produce the right auhenticated papers for vacancy he should not have any problem with the DCC. ” – You can’t get anything authenticated without bribing them. For me it was easier to pay the taxes even it wasn’t due.
Ershad Reply:
June 14th, 2009 at 1:07 am
The hypocrisy of the business class is so deeply ingrained in our culture that you will see a lot of BCCI and BGMEA office holders speaking on TV channels criticising the government on budget proposals but never for a moment reflecting on the injustice being done to the workers and the total disregard for enviromental safeguards of the city dwellers.
One such personality is Anowar-ul-Alam Chowdhury Pervez who is most of the time criticising the government but has hardly ever mentioned the calamitious ecological and enviromental catastrophe they have done to the Dhaka dwellers by erecting an unauthorized illegal BGMEA building in the midst of the Hatir Jheel Resevoir Recovery project.
They must have acquired the illegal piece of water basin bed by bribing the then goverment and then filling in the basin bed with mud and sand and hurriedly constructing the megastructiure to foil any attempts to destroy it in future. In its wake they may have sowed the seeds for the biggest disaster in Dhaka city by obstructing the natural flow of water through the reservoir.
It is also surprising to see that they have somehow managed the Fakruddin government not to bring it down possibly through illegal means. In my opinion it should have been pumelled to the ground before the RANGS bhaban.
It is an eyesore to see that illegal BGMEA building obstructing one’s view of the wide expanse of the once natural water basin.
I ask the government to take immediate steps to tear it down to ground zero and restore the basin to its original form. It would be a wonderful site to see a huge open water mass at the heart of Dhaka.
This is just another example of intellectual corruption and immoral land grabbing greed at the highest level of our business elites.
The Bangladesh economy is in very competent hands. In spite of many domestic problems this new government has managed the economy well.
It is heartening to see that that we have somehow withstood the economic turbulence that has badly shaken the Western economies.
The budget is pro-people, heavily tilted in favor of the poor while balancing the profiteering needs of the rich. Social safety has been widened to protect the poor.
The PPP initiative is a brilliant innovative venture proposed by the Finance Minister. I think if the businessmen and the government behave responsibly it will deliver for us.
In talkshows soon after the marathon speech by the ever-smiling, vibrant FM some concerns were raised by the garments manufacturing sector and a section of the so called ‘Shushil Samaj’ about allocation for the garments sector and emigrant workers, and taxing undisclosed money. Even one of the businessmen was saying that that the government should build accomodation for the workers. It is absurd to ask the government for addressing all the problems of the workers. It is the manufacturing sector owners who should immediately take such initiatives addressing the housing and health concerns of the workers from the enormously huge profits they make which is unimaginable in any developed country.
Two of the former advisors Akbar Ali and Mirza Aziz are darn against the whitening scope offered to undeclared money. Both of them held high offices and one of them had served the BNP government as finance secretary while this provision was introduced to let Saifur Rahman, Khaleda Zia, their family members and many more to whiten their undisclosed monies.
It is ironical to hear such remarks from two former advisors who themselves had netted millions of tax-exempted money from World Bank and other international organisations while the ordinary citizens are heavily taxed in the US and the Western world.
Let me come back to the garments sector and the foreign immigrant workers’ concerns.
The garments sector should lay out the exact numbers without any tampering or manipulation on a weekly basis to closely monitor what is really happening in that area. Exactly the same approach should be taken in the emigrant workers situation. Remittances have in reality gone up appreciably after the Awami League government took over. Otherwise our foreign reserves would not have shot up like this. It may go beyond $7 billion by the end of 2009. Since the government has given a major boost to the social safety net I see no reason why the the garments and emigrant workers who are grounded should feel left out.
It would be interesting to see if a triple P (PPP) is launched with a tiny fraction from Mr. Muhith’s budget to re-employ the laid-off workers into a lucrative business venture.
[Reply]
Mohammad Reply:
June 12th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
I do not think we ever had problem with the budget itself. All of them were termed pro-people. The key issue is whether we will be able to implement the budget with the efficiency and speed it demands. I do not think efficiency of the administration has improved dramatically over last few months, that will see govt policies are implemented in desired speed. The budget itself will not prevent ” Khamba” syndrome. What we don’t want to see is PPP ending like Bangabir K. Siddiqi’s bridges ! The worry is rulers are surrounded by the same type of tycoons .
15% VAT on house rents ! Who is going to pay this ? I am an expat . I own a building having 10 flats in Dhaka. On average two flats are always empty. We already have troubles with income tax and city corp authorities about the vacant flats. They do not have any dynamic sys to track occupancy status. So we end up paying Income and Municipal tax on empty flats ! So now it seems we will have to pay VAT on empty flats as well. Relation with the tenants are bound to sour in coming weeks. This VAT policy is not sufficiently supported by process and mechanism we have in place. It’s going to create more chaos.
Remittances has increased consistently over last few years. AL govt has nothing to do with it. Remittances has provided government with cash life line. Without any substantial investment by the government ! It kept the economy stabilized during these troubled times. The govt got to do something to sustain the trend and see continued development in the sector. Who are the beneficiaries of these earned Dollars ? We all know them. It’s time we do something about it.
[Reply]
Shahriar Javed Reply:
June 12th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
Remittances will skyrocket under the AL government. It is projected to surpass he $8 billion mark by 2010. What do you mean that it has nothing to do with AL’s performance for the last 6 months!
It’s the exquisite management of the economy by competent men, stupid!
The economic and budget team has done a superb work. Hats off to them!
Shed your mean spirit and learn to appreciate truth.
The just concluded open forum with the press showed how democratic and task-oriented this Awami League government is. Presence of many ministers and pressmen and their participation enlivened the proceedings.
[Reply]
Mohammad Reply:
June 12th, 2009 at 8:59 pm
Shahriar , I am not sure where you get your data from , we do not have to wait tillBl 2010 for $8 billion. We passed that. BB yet to publish their annual report for 2008-2009, but we definitely crossed $9 billion but we were gunning for $10b.
Migrant Remittances , Aug 2008/ vol 5 / issue 3 :
The Bangladesh Bank reported that remittances of $829.5 million in July increased foreign exchange reserves toward $6 billion, and the bank expects total remittances to surpass $10 billion for the 2008–2009 fiscal year. The monthly record showed a continuing increase in the amount of remittances sent to Bangladesh—a 46.3 percent increase from July 2007. The second half of the fiscal year ending in June averaged more than $700 million per month, for a total of $8 billion during the 2007–2008 fiscal year. The previous monthly record was $808.7 million, received in March 2007.
Recession Reply:
June 12th, 2009 at 10:57 pm
S. Javed: Who are you calling stupid? – “It’s the exquisite management of the economy by competent men, stupid!”! Just because he though not the way youi thought – he became a stupid and you become a masala!
And yes – in fact I doubt peopel who talk about economy so much knows how much! Any fool watching at the world market and how they behave will know that economy is on upswing or taking off! Experts are telling that economy possibly bottomed out. Stock market is on rise for few months now. Oil doubled from its low of $32 barrel. Today it is $70 +.
Now about Remittance! Possibly you seem to forget past very soon. In 2001 when AL left power bastion, they left behind 121 Crore of Foreign reserve – not enough to pay even a month plus of imports. A country is said to be in minimum safe ground when they have minimum 3 months of import cost in exchequer. Ours was considered 300 crore.
Since 2001, the currency reserve kept on going up. CONTINUOUSLY.
Not in one year since 2001, the remmittance growth went down. NOT even ONCE. In fact almost all years we kept on hitting new record levels. The last record was created during CTGs last year when we croseed 6 or 7 billion threshold. This year accordingly it will go up.
yes, it has got nothing to do with only AL’s management of remmittance but has got every thing to do with the effort of all govt since 2001 (BNP, CTG, AL surrently). Govt realized that foreign currency earners NRIs are golden goose and so they focused on improving the remmitrance inflow system and made it easier. More so, the banks now compete for remmittance as that helps them to maintain the capital reserve that BB has dictated. All taken together, is is a natural progression. Not suddenly invented by AL. Let us not fool ourselves and make us look like stupid.
In fact, even though I don’t like the man, it is Saifur Rahman – who first emphasized on remmittance focusedly. He did it because he had to save his back.
And opur economy has got more things to do with world market and little bit blessing from uporwala. But I don’t envy AL’s fate. If we bash them for failure, then we should hail them for good things even though that may not come from specific management. They did take one very good step: reduce the price of fertilizer…
Recession Reply:
June 13th, 2009 at 2:27 am
Good data Mohammed.
Now interesting will be to see if Shahriar Jaffar gives credit to last CTG, under whose examplarary election AL came, during whose time remmittance made record!
Will you Jaffar!
Shariar Javed Reply:
June 13th, 2009 at 9:05 pm
Yes, you are right. It was just a slip of pen. It should have been FOREIGN RESERVES held by the GOB. I apologise for my error.
With reference to “It’s the exquisite management of the economy by competent men, stupid!” no offence was meant. It was actually borrowed from the famous utterance by Bill Clinton coined by James Carville, a brilliant political strategist, “Its the economy, stupid!” You can find out more about it from the Internet.
I will not excuse BNP for not attending the budget speech. What do they mean by respectable allotment of seat? The Awami League has been very gracious to BNP this time. It has formed committees in the fastest possible time ever and have been very accomodating in spite of rampant corruption, nepotism and breach of parliamentary code of conduct by Jamiruddin Sarker et al.
Mrs.Zia thinks that she still has the ironman-like grip like Ziaur Rahman on her party. She is basically a fascist by nature. The presidential system was what she preferred but had to bow down in view of disagreemet both within her party and outside. The grounds on which she did not attend the last session except just three days is unpardonable.
How many fronts will she handle in the future? She has already surrounded herself with too many sycophants from her hometown Noakhali. Delwar, Hafiz, Hannan Shah, Mannan Bhuiyan, Khoka and Salauddin Quader are at loggerheads with one another.
What she is not being told is that her party is in total disarray in most parts of the country because of inclusion of discredited, corrupt and opportunists in the newly formed bodies. This is not a healthy sign for any democartic party by any standard.
On the contrary the Awami League has strengthened and solidified its hold at the grassroots level. The PM is also behaving more responsibly this time and she is tight-lipped. The are absolutely task-oriented. The post budget session held by the finance minister and his team was a brilliant show of AL’s teamwork and intra-party democracy at play.
jyoti Reply:
June 14th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Recession: Any fool watching at the world market and how they behave will know that economy is on upswing or taking off!
—
The economy is taking off? Really? Where? Watching the world economy is my job. I haven’t seen any taking off. I must be blind. Or fool. Or both.
Strange Rebuttal Reply:
June 14th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
Jyoti:
No – you are neither fool nor blind. Some thing different beyond my descriptive ability
I must admit. In a class, lets say masters in economy, at the end every body graduates. Some tops while some bottoms. In between the rest. All claim they are graduates, masters in economy. However, there is difference between the 1st and the last. Between good and the average. Between excellence and its opposite – the worst.
Watching the economy is your job. Well that is fine. Anybody can watch but everybody’s interpretastion and ability to interpret is not same. Hmm…no wonder for poor Bangladesh!
Not giving my credentials to back me up but facts. Afterall facts speak louder than credentials. If I say I am an economist, I could be anywhere – the worst, the best, or the average. It is subjective and at times even I may not know how good or bad I am. On the surface I may think I am the best, however, I truly may be the worst. Could be. So let fact speak that is indisputable and not paper credentials.
Before that let me quote myself in full, least your half quote dows not do full justice: Here is what I said to puyt in perspective:
“Any fool watching at the world market and how they behave will know that economy is on upswing or taking off! Experts are telling that economy possibly bottomed out. Stock market is on rise for few months now. Oil doubled from its low of $32 barrel. Today it is $70 +.”
I must admit, my first part was a reaction to one who calls others fool just becasue they don’t think alike. – Here is what S. Javed said: ” It’s the exquisite management of the economy by competent men, stupid!”
So I said, that possibly it has bottomed out. That too referring to experts. And not definitively. Possibly indicates a prediction or judgment.
Now lets get back to facts that you havn’t seen being a world economy watcher:
1. The world economy was in dire straits. Oil went up to $147/Barrel. It hit rock bottom that we already know of.
2. Oil went down to $33 in March. The same oil is now $70. and change. Right! That is a whooping 100% upswing.
3. DOW – DIJA hit below 6800 in March. On June 12, it is at 8799.26 mark. That is a whooping return on 29% over 2 and half month.
4. S&P/TSX was at touching almost 7000. Prior to last October it was at its high of 16000. Today it is 10644.96. Over two months that translates to more than 40% upswing.
5. “As of the close on Monday, the S&P 500 stock index has rallied 39 percent since touching a bear-market low on March 9, and recently pierced its 200-day moving average.” – Now if you know how technical analysis works, piercing through moving avg trend means a reversal is in offing. Now here is the reality. I don’t expect my mate (in real life) who graduated as an economist but never truly studied (we have lots of them) would not even know what a technical analysis is or how it works!
5. I picked two sectors at its bottom. HOU that is an oil tracker and the financial. I predicted HOU for a buy at $4.27. It went down to $4.15. Two months now it is at $9. I predict6ed HFU for buy when it was 2.87. Today two months down it is $7 +. HFU.
I will focus on US mostly now as it is here every thing started and so it must be here that every thing should stop first:
Now: May – “U.S. consumer confidence soared in April – Americans lifted by hopeful signs economy starting to stabilize” ————- “Hopeful signs that the worst may be over for the economy boosted Americans’ moods in April, sending a closely watched barometer of sentiment to the highest level since November.”
“U.S. consumer confidence sees biggest jump in 6 years” – May 26, 09
“”Consumers are considerably less pessimistic than they were earlier this year,” said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center.”
April”
Even a backbencher of an economy class knows about indicators. Leading,
lagging etc. Stock market is considered a leading indicator of what is to come.
- Now come to unemployment: Lets take US. It had been shedding job at a rate which was simply terrible. As of now, it is still shedding but at a much lower rate – stable rate. No doubt unemploymenty is at its high. But if you know economy then you also know that unemployment is a lagging indicator. Which means it will trail economic cycle.
- Credit crunch was at its worst. Now the LIBOR rate and SWAP rate are back to almost where it was. Money flow of course increased due to many reason. US mortgage rate was at its lowest few days back before jumping back.
- America invested billions through TARP money. Saved banks with taxpayers money. Now 10 of the largest banks are giving that money back. In the process govt made over 1.8 billion.
- During the worst crisis, none was buying stock any more. Now bank of America, JP Morgan, even City is raising money in a flash.
- Americal auto industry – while filed for bankruptcy – is in a better shape in that at least they will not be what they were. Money eater…. They are being made to be lean, mean (!) and thin.
Now lets see some quote source after all:
1. “The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said most of the leading industrialised and developing economies reported improved conditions in April.” – ‘Glimmer of hope’ that the crisis is turning – http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25608093-5013404,00.html
2. The OECD said evidence of recovery was strongest in Britain, China, Canada, France and Italy, but it was too soon to tell whether it was a “temporary or a more durable turning point”.
3. The OECD said there were positive signals emerging in Germany, Japan and the US, however, conditions were worsening in most of the big emerging nations, with the exceptions of China and India.
4. A smaller than expected fall in the number of people with jobs in the US last week is the latest indicator being claimed to point to economic recovery. The number of people with jobs fell by 345,000, which was less than the forecast 500,000.
5. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a shipping index considered one of the most reliable global economic indicators, has been surging up for 17 consecutive days as of Feb. 11, 09. – The skeptics failed to predict that the rebound in the BDI would be soon and so powerful, but ————— correctly called the bottom and also called for the BDI’s imminent and powerful rebound. Therefore, ——— am comfortable to call the skeptics wrong and predict the BDI’s continued surge.
I hope you know what Baltic Index is. Not all will know, I suppose. For others, in general it is an index that is related to shipping. Shipping is important to gauge world trade.
Now come to confidence indicator. It was worst during the end of 2008. Now it is on the upswing. Here it is from source:
“U.S. consumer confidence improves in June” – From REUTERS. Here are the important excerpts:
“Optimism Index climbed to 50.8 in June from 48.6 in May, marking its highest reading since November 2008.” – “A figure above 50 indicates optimism, while one below 50 points to pessimism.”————–”"Across the board, there is an optimistic feeling that the economy is recovering,”
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Jyoti I can go on and on but lets give the right perspective.
Now we are not yet out of woods. But there are good signs than before that say we may be seeing light at the end of the tunnel. In terms of business cycle or economic cycle we may not have had recovery but chances are we are starting the journey. None can say will full conviction. In fact, because of drastic upswing there is fear that another correction may be offing. Some indicates oil price is up not due to fundamental demand but because of inflation.
Due to huge money influx, US $ is to weaken and that pushes commodity prices up. For hedging against a weaker currency, betting on oil may drive up the price. Who knows which one is the foolproof answer. Not the best economists know even. Far remains you and me.
That is why ECONOMISTS are half the time and more wrong. Because it is about predicting future.
————————————–
Last but not the least, we will be doing better job reading little more about economy and watching more carefully. Otherwise, I hope we at the least don’t advise our government when we proclaimed to be an world economy watcher.
And for Gods sake don’t come back to say I know nothing of economy and you know all. If it satisfies you, I get other analysts prepare economic update for me quite vigorously. And I am, humbly, may I say, more than a starter in economy, if not a proclaimed world economy watcher like you.
Nothing personal but I must stop now.
P.S. I haven’t said anything about US housing market. Well you may read Minzky’s theory to know what and why and how. We may have started the reverse journey in Mynzky hypothetical path. And yet, the housing market seems to have touched off or nearning bottom. The pace of fall is much lower than what it was few months back.
Rani Reply:
June 12th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
Late night talkshows are nonsense where people like Asafuddowlah and Akbar Ali Khan are invited to make irresponsible anti-democratic remarks. Otherwise how could both of them say that power is more important than democracy? It is the same Akbar Ali who was shedding crocodile tears for restoration of democracy during the botched up failed Fakruddin period while holding a government post under Fakruddin.
Are they paid and patronized by a section of the media as part of a bigger evil design? The government should carefully watch their ulterior motives.
[Reply]
Mohammad Reply:
June 13th, 2009 at 10:29 pm
Rani , Pls read an example of Democratic remark :
“Politics is the highest form of the art of compromise…..We have to satisfy everyone, ( The New Age )
Muhith said while defending his proposal on black money at a crowded post-budget press conference at the Planning Commission auditorium.
He, however, did not make it clear what political consideration or which interest group had compelled the government to re-introduce the controversial tax measure.” ( The New Age ).
[Reply]
Rumi Reply:
June 14th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
I like that. He is right. The very people, not you and me, who had their money whitened during Kaleda and Fakruddin’s period are now trying to sound like Messiahs. NONSENSE!
There is a huge pool of undisclosed money floating around. I fully support the government’s decision. This black or white money should be tapped. There’s no need to create a panic among the wide spectrum of holders of that money. They represent all sections of the society whether you agree or not. Tapping it will create jobs for the majority who somehow manage to eke out a living.
I am sure it is only a democratic government that can harness the untapped undeclared money through pragmatic programs. No need to create panic and send the viable economy into a nosedive. Corruption cannot be wiped out from our mindset overnight. It is deeply intertwined in our colonialistic tax-evading culture. But we are making progress.
Politics is after all the highest form of the art of compromise where the economic benefit of the majority has to be ensured. Most of the powerful have fled away with the blackmoney stuffed in suitcases and through flight of capital through wiretransfers into foreign bank accounts. The army backed failed government instead of booking them had got themselves drowned in the harem of corruption.
Therefore, I fully support the government for this last opportunity to clean up the mess created due to loopholes created to protect the interests of the ruling class for ages.
Mohammad Reply:
June 15th, 2009 at 1:05 am
Rumi , we may have lots of logics to make it acceptable but still I feel it does not conform to good governance and our constitution. Here what the constitution says :
19. Equality of opportunity.
(1) The State shall endeavour to ensure equality of opportunity to all citizens.
(2) The State shall adopt effective measures to remove social and economic inequality between man and man and to ensure the equitable distribution of wealth among citizens, and of opportunities in order to attain a uniform level of economic development throughout the Republic.
The budget is a balancing act. It is like walking a tightrope. One simply cannot satisfy the needs of all concerned. In the final analysis, it has been a neatly done exercise.
It is not final too. It will be discussed in the parliament before its approved and passed. Therefore, there’s no reason to criticize it from a hidden political agenda by ’someone’ just for the sake of sheer, shallow destructive criticism.
The sectors that have received less attention can be addressed in the coming next four budgets to be drawn out by the democratically elected government. That is the norm in any democracy until and unless ’someone’ swoops in to snatch away democracy to plunge the nation into an abyss!
[Reply]
The Bangladesh government has done the right thing by imposing new tax on killer tobacco. The following is a just released wire fro the Associated Press:
WASHINGTON – Congress sent legislation to the White House Friday granting the federal government unprecedented authority to regulate and restrict cigarettes, the single largest cause of preventable death.
President Barack Obama quickly expressed his support, appearing in the Rose Garden almost immediately after the House gave final approval to the bill giving the Food and Drug Administration control over tobacco production, marketing and sales.
For more than a decade, Obama said, leaders in Congress have been trying to prevent the marketing of cigarettes to children “and provide the public with the information they need to understand what a dangerous habit this is.” He said the outcome was “a bill that truly defines change in Washington.”
Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., chief sponsor of the House version, called it “the single most important thing that we can do right now to curb this deadly toll.”
More than 400,000 people die every year from tobacco-related diseases, according to government figures. About 45 million U.S. adults are smokers, though the prevalence has fallen since the U.S. surgeon general’s warning 45 years ago that tobacco causes lung cancer.
The House, which first passed a similar FDA bill in April, voted 307-97 to endorse the version passed 79-17 by the Senate on Thursday.
The measure puts special emphasis on dissuading some of the 3,500 young people who every day smoke a cigarette for the first time. It prohibits use of candied and flavored cigarettes popular among young people and severely restricts advertisements and promotions targeted toward youth. It bans use of words such as “mild” or “light” that give the impression that the brand is safer. It requires stronger warning labels.
The FDA would also require tobacco companies to reveal the contents of their products and they’d have to seek approval for marketing new products. It gives the FDA power to order changes to ingredients, including tar and nicotine, to protect public health.
Altria Group, parent company of Philip Morris USA, the nation’s largest tobacco company, issued a statement Thursday supporting the legislation and saying it approved “tough but reasonable federal regulation of tobacco products” by the FDA. Rival companies have voiced opposition, saying FDA limits on new tobacco products could lock in market shares for Philip Morris, maker of Marlboro cigarettes.
Opposition in the House came from Republicans concerned about government intrusion in private enterprise and tobacco state lawmakers. Rep. Howard Coble, R-N.C., said people in his state believed “allowing the FDA to regulate tobacco in any capacity would lead to the FDA regulating the family farm.”
The greater goal of the legislation is to reduce deaths linked to smoking and shrink the annual $100 billion health care price tag for tobacco-related illnesses.
Smoking is responsible for more than 30 percent of all cancer deaths, said Dr. Douglas Blayney, president of the American Society of Clinical Oncology. The bill, he said, “should have a huge impact on reducing the death and disease brought on by tobacco use.”
Obama, who has spoken of his own struggle to quit smoking, praised the bill, saying it “will make history by giving the scientists and medical experts at the FDA the power to take sensible steps.”
Lawmakers, led by the ailing Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., have been fighting for more than a decade to impose government controls over cigarettes, only to meet strong resistance from the tobacco industry and others. The Supreme Court in 2000 said the FDA did not have authority to regulate tobacco under current law, and the administration of then-President George W. Bush opposed congressional efforts to rewrite the law.
The industry, said Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., who guided the bill to passage in the Senate, had long succeeded in excluding itself from federal regulation. “That now changes forever,” he said.
“Passage of this historic legislation by both the House and the Senate is a victory for public health over Big Tobacco,” said Dr. Nancy Nielsen, president of the American Medical Association.
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The bill is H.R. 1256.
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Does anyone have any statistics on tobacco related mobidity and mortality in Bangladesh?
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lol a you folks you think the govt increased the tax on tobacco to increase revenue?
it is under tremendous pressure from the world health organization to do so as it has signed a treaty.
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Regardless of tremendous pressure from world health or from Timbaktu this increase has been supported by all non-smokers & by god even by smokers that i know of and has been talk of the town for the past 72 hours or so!!!
We must give credit where ever credit is due, i both hope and pray that this scourge of smoking must be done away in god speed.
have a great day, take care.
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guys – a few things the budget has taught me = hide my income until 2012 then declare it as black money with 10% rate. It seems very surprising the same people who have been calling the budget as revolutionary and calling ALs work as exemplary are mute when it comes to the whitening of black money. when so-called literate web browsers practice such hypocrisy and biaseness how can we blame our politicians? after all, if we have a placard hanging from our necks saying ’screw me, I am stupid’ then somebody willl oblige – be it BNP or AL… Yay democracy….
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There is a deeply engraved danger in the concept which says : “there is a huge pool of undisclosed money floating around..BLACK MONEY …. Tapping it will create jobs for the majority who somehow manage to eke out a living. so lets legalise it ”
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This concept is the fundamental breeder of corruption, which creates a viscious circle of fraud and uncontrollable financial mess. Much of worlds current economic crisis was caused by this ‘black economy’ mindset, which allowed banks and lenders to perpetuate a ‘black money’ system.
Just as if corruption cannot be curtailed overnight (?), then the sickness of economic mess cannot be either, when economy is allowed to let loose in the greed for “untapped money”. By allowing black money to be ‘whitened’, the authority have essentially said “corruption is also whitened”. This is critical because the economy cannot realistically sustain under a system of corruption, any GDP growth that looks like economic growth is basically ARTIFICIAL.
There may be a compromise that MAY BE tried, which only a precision neuro-surgeon of governance may achieve. Govt may allow ONLY EXISTING untapped money to be whitened, but tighten avenues for NEW black money to be created, so that the culture of financial fraud and laundering is not spread out into ir-reversible damage, while whitening is in process.
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Strange Rebuttal, obviously you don’t need to be told anything about economics. I’ll leave you with your analysts to prepare reports for you vigorously.
Anyone else interested, some perspective.
Usually, the US economy grows by about 3% a year. Half of that growth comes from the increase in labour input, the rest comes from increase in labour productivity. So 3% is thought of as US’s potential growth rate. When growth falls significantly below 3% for an extended period of time, we say that the US economy is experiencing a slowdown. When growth actually turns negative — that is, when the economy actually shrinks — for an extended period, we have a recession. In 2009, the IMF reckons US economy will shrink by 2.6% — ie, growth will be -2.6%. This comes after a 1.1% growth in 2008.
That is, by 2010, the US economy will be 7.5% smaller than would have been the case had the global financial crisis not happen. Given this huge slack in the economy, when the recovery happens, one would think the US economy will grow much faster than the ‘normal’ 3%. In fact, that’s exactly what usually happens — recoveries are characterised by faster-than-normal growth.
So what is the IMF forecast for the US economy in 2010? A growth of 0.2%. ‘Any fool’ can call it take off or whatever, but anyone who knows what they are talking about will call it a very sluggish recovery.
These forecasts were published in April, and they rest on an explicit assumption that a semblence of normalcy return to the financial system by mid-2009. The IMF also stressed that risks to these forecasts were on the down side — in plain English, if forecasts are missed, the outcome are likely to be worse than what is predicted.
Most of the recent indicators we have seen — stock market up, interbank spread down etc — show that the assumption is coming true. What this means is that a lot of those downside risks are now not as likely. That is, we can be more confident that the very sluggish recovery is going to happen in the US.
And the story is similar for all developed countries. Anyone interested should read the IMF’s world economic outlook: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/index.htm
If it is too technical, I also recommend Paul Krugman’s blog:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
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