They just had a number of off year elections in the US. Pundits are analysing the results in New Jersey and Virginia governor races and the Congress by-election (or whatever it is called over there) to draw inferences about President Obama’s popularity with the voters.
Let’s leave that analysis to the Americans and think about the upcoming by-election in Bhola-3. In the absence of credible opinion poll (what happened to the Daily Star Nielsen poll?), this will be a good guide to the current political trends in Bangladesh.
I do some aggregate number crunching in what follows. BNP may well reclaim the seat, but the magnitude of the victory will point to how (un)popular the AL government is. But this is based on no knowledge whatosever about the local issues. Anyone in the house from Bhola to enlighten us?
Keeping in mind Tofail is (or being made) inactive, AL has all possibilities to loose this seat. JP also may not pull in its support in favor of Mohajote candidate. Major Hafiz won this seat 3 times including once or twice as an independent MP.
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I think Major Hafiz won this seat six times in the past.
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jyoti Reply:
November 5th, 2009 at 10:39 am
Tacit, I was excluding the one-party elections under Ershad or Feb 1996.
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subi Reply:
November 6th, 2009 at 5:12 am
Or the proposed one party election in jan 07 from which we were saved
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i personally feel major hafiz’s standing in the bnp is under the clouds at this point in time, hence bhola-03’s poll result has become pretty unpredictable regardless of major hafiz’s excellent past recordss!!!
lets hope major hafiz’s poll result will prove me wrong but, my money is on the candidate AL will nominate!
do hv nice weekends, take care!!!
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fugstar Reply:
November 5th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
in a strong national AL government. it would be in their interests to vote AL and get some development work!
its not a case of happy clappy obamaness in desh. less hope, less actual political opposition. less action in the past year.
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You need to account for two more things. This is the first time Hafiz is running a by-election when turn out is typically low + govt party is typically favoured in remote areas so that some development work can take shape in the area while the MP’s party is in power. Although you mentioned the second point but you haven’t predicted the swing that may happen because of this. I can’t quite remember in the by-elections that happened post 2008, how many has gone to BNP and how much was the vote swing. As far as I can recall, Jamiruddin Sircar and Moudud Ahmed have come to parliament through by-elections in seats originally won by BNP. A good thing to look at would be if the percentage vote decreased in those seats because of BNP not being in power and also by how much. It will be interesting to see how much vote increase/decrease happened from the 2008 election that can give us a clue on how big this goverment party swing is.
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jyoti Reply:
November 13th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
I realise I never answered Asif’s question re: Bogra numbers. Khaleda Zia won both Bogra 6 and 7 with slightly about 70% votes against AL candidate’s 27/28%. Sircar matched KZ in Bogra-6 while Moudud got well over 60% in Bogra-7. Turnout was much lower in the by-elections.
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In all constituencies which had gone to AL originally, AL has won the by-elections quite convincingly. Both the points factors raised in the previous comment are extremely relevant. I think another interesting insight will be the AL candidate. They could go with the original candidate: Major Jasim, although renominating an army official dismissed for corruption, probably clashes somewhat with AL’s message of Digital Bangladesh.
If they change candidates, they could go with Yusuf Hossain Humayun, the new AL presidium member, which would have the additional effect of curbing Tofael Ahmed.
On a different note, has anyone been following the deep passion that has apparently been unleashed in Kishoreganj?
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Mohammad Reply:
November 6th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
” On a different note, has anyone been following the deep passion that has apparently been unleashed in Kishoreganj?”
Is it part of an adminstrative reform ? I doubt it. It’s probably being done to honour President Zillur Rahman and his son’s election pledge.
I know Bhairab very well, and in fact disappointed to see Bhairab losing it’s glory over last few deacades. Apart from being a very important river port and commercial hub, Bhairab used to be known as Bhairab Bazar Junction ! It hosted a huge establishment for Railways. In fact more than half of the present town WAS owned by Railways. Railway employees made it a vibrant town with quality education, cultural and sports infrastructure. Bhairab Railway Highschool used to be the top school of the region. Railway’s Hakim Shah Institute was the nerve center of all cultural activities. Football league was hosted on Railway ground. Hockey, Cricket and Night Badminton was introduced by Railway Club. All annual sports used to be held at Railway grounds. Even Sheikh Mujib addressed the mamoth rally held on Railway grounds. Railway hospital was the premier one in the region.
Bhairab hasn’t really progressed in last few decades. Railways has been dismantled from Bhairab. Virtually all staff has moved. Meghna has eaten up the School, Institute and all the play grounds !!! Bhairab has never succeeded establishing another High School of that quality ! Hospital closed down. Bhairab was famous for it’s ” Aratdar” business. Big “arats” has been closed ! Railway lands has been grabbed right and left . Crime rate has shot up.
I don’t think Bhairab is ready to become a District. Although it has excellent communication with Railway, Road and Waterways connectivity, it doesn’t have the internal infrastucture in place to become a District. What we should do is pursue Upazila concept vigorously, empower local govt , help decentralize services and contribute to development.
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Fug/Asif, in the Bangladeshi context, it would seem ‘rational’ to vote for the incumbent party in by-elections. But it’s frequently the case that this doesn’t happen. BNP retained both seats in Bogra, and won the seat in Noakhali where Ganatantri Pary’s Nurul Islam was running.
In most of the by-elections contested by the opposition parties in the past parliaments, seats belonging to the opposition were usually retained. A famous exception to this was in 1996, when AL captured one of the seats vacated by the BNP chief. However, BNP’s candidate was Moudud Ahmed, who until a few weeks before the by-election was JP’s de facto head (Ershad was in jail) and ran an andolon against BNP. I think Moudud’s digbaji was a more influential factor than any calculation over development work.
That said, it’s not very often that the incumbent party loses seat in a by-election. The most striking case in recent past I can think of is one in Dinajpur seat that was won by a JP candidate from Jamaat in late 2005 or early 2006. Not only was the incumbent party snubbed, I recall it to have been a massive swing. It was also remarkable given the JP candidate’s religion — he was Hindu, and Jamaat pulled no punches about it. That by-election happened at the height of JMB attacks, and was interpreted by many as sign of collapse in BNP’s popularity.
Of course I am not saying something like this is on the card here. What I am saying is that if Hafiz won a massive victory, it would point to an erosion of support for AL. Nor am I saying that AL can’t win the seat — much will depend on the AL candidate, as Tacit says. But if AL wins with a wider margin than in Dec, it would look a bit fishy.
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fishy or otherwise major jasim will again come out in flying colors under his incumbent party, this has invariably been the norms & will continue to be so for a long time to come!!! regardless of what the jp candidate pulled off in 2005/6. the 1996 history repeating by the bnp candidate against the al, is quite remote at this point in time.
do have a nice weekend, take care!
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