Naeem Mohaiemen and Jyoti Rahman
Published in the Daily Star on 27 December 2009.
Analysts celebrate remittance growth curves in seminars, but we need to unpack these shiny numbers. The Ministry of Expatriates’ Welfare and Overseas Employment publishes the total number of migrant workers by year, but has no timely statistics on returns which, by evidence of our airports, is large. So we have no calculation of how many are coming back due to deportation or job loss.
At the onset of the global recession last year, exports were considered to be a major channel through which Bangladesh would have been affected. After the recession hit its most virulent phase after the Lehman collapse, within weeks the world trade collapsed. Exports from Asia shrunk heavily. But surprisingly, Bangladeshi export fell by much less. Then it started recovering much earlier than other comparable countries. A year after Lehman, while most Asian exports were still 15-20% lower, our exports were 5% higher.
Drishtipat Writers’ Collective (DWC) has published its first review of Bangladesh National Budget for the financial year 2009-10.  While supporting the newly elected Government’s promise of din bodol (change), the Collective strives to provide concrete and constructive criticism where we feel the Government is falling short in keeping its promise. This report analyses the first National Budget of the Government in that light. Â
Analysis of the budget proposals should only be the commencement of a public discourse, and for the efficient implementation of these proposals, the budget ‘hype’ should continue through to mid-year review and postimplementation follow-ups. To help stimulate the public monitoring of the national development process, DWC has been contributing to the pre and post budget discourse. This compendium puts various articles published during the 2009-10 Budget session within one cover, just as the country prepares itself for the next round of discussions on monitoring and implementation of Budget proposals.
(Published in the Daily Star on 15 June 2009)
INCIDENTALLY when the manifestos for National Election 2008 were being prepared, the world economy was already in recession and the election promises were linked with the recovery. This must have facilitated the budget to address the recession and election promises in chorus and with success.
The budget admits the challenges ahead forecasting a 5.5% GDP growth, but it also aims to change that conservative scenario by promoting investment, decentralisation and infrastructural development. The finance minister has received a mixed (though largely positive) response for various proposals. This article however underscores few uncertainties surrounding the budget proposals.
Unless you’ve just come back from outer space, you’d know that we’re in the middle of the worst recession in our lifetime. Over the next few weeks, in the lead up to the budget in May, I plan to post a few notes on the economic situation facing Bangladesh. This is the first installment.
The World Bank’s latest forecast has the Bangladeshi economy growing by 4.5% in 2008-09 and 4% in 2009-10. The median of blue chip private sector forecasts has the economy growing by 4.4% this financial year, and 4.6% next.
To put these numbers into context, in 2007-08, GDP grew by 6.2% — fifth straight year of 6% plus growth. Since 1994-95, GDP growth has topped 4.5% in every year but one (2001/02 — the dot com and 9/11 recession). And the current Poverty Reduction Strategy aims for a GDP growth of 7.5%.
So these forecasts are pretty negative. But it’s easy to show with some quick-and-dirty back-of-the-envelop calculation that under reasonable assumptions, the GDP growth for 2008-09 or 2009-10 could turn out to be as low as 3.6% — lowest rate since 1990-91 (when we were buffeted by the first Gulf War, anti-Ershad uprising, and a devastating cyclone).
