They just had a number of off year elections in the US. Pundits are analysing the results in New Jersey and Virginia governor races and the Congress by-election (or whatever it is called over there) to draw inferences about President Obama’s popularity with the voters.
Let’s leave that analysis to the Americans and think about the upcoming by-election in Bhola-3. In the absence of credible opinion poll (what happened to the Daily Star Nielsen poll?), this will be a good guide to the current political trends in Bangladesh.
I do some aggregate number crunching in what follows. BNP may well reclaim the seat, but the magnitude of the victory will point to how (un)popular the AL government is. But this is based on no knowledge whatosever about the local issues. Anyone in the house from Bhola to enlighten us?
(More at Mukti)
jyoti, November 4th 2009 |
Tags: Election Data Analysis
Posted in Awami League, BNP, Election
By comparing constituency results between the 2001 and 2008 elections, it is apparent that Jamaat not only suffered a significant electoral loss in 2008, but it also now holds support with a smaller share of the electorate. … Whether this signals a long-term trend away from Jamaat and religion-based politics should become clearer in the next few election cycles.
Read more…
UV_Admin, January 12th 2009 |
Tags: Election Data Analysis
Posted in Election 2008, jamaat-e-islami
The Parliamentary election of 2008 will be recorded as the ushering of a new age in Bangladesh democracy; it will definitely be a new and different kind of election.
Let’s discuss why this will not be a different election and why this will be.
Read more…
rumi, December 29th 2008 |
Tags: Digital Bangladesh, Election Data Analysis
Posted in Election 2008
“Our intention is not to start a debate about the legitimacy of the 2001 or 1996 elections. Rather, our analysis is aimed at helping with a better election process in the future. … the unfortunate reality has been that all parties are to various extents guilty of trying to subvert the process, and thus none really has the credibility to challenge wrong doings by the other side. It is about time that this changes.”
Read more…
UV_Admin, December 24th 2008 |
Tags: Election Data Analysis
Posted in Election 2008
“Religious minorities accounted for 12 per cent of total registered voters in Bagerhat-4 constituency. In 2001, the result of this constituency was determined by a close margin of 1.13 per cent. Could the voters of this constituency cast their votes fearlessly? Let’s just take one example. Parkumarkhali HS polling centre of Ramchandrapur Union was witnessing a high voter turnout on Election Day. Suddenly a number of miscreants went on the rampage and soon the polling centre was closed.” Read more…
UV_Admin, December 14th 2008 |
Tags: Election Data Analysis
Posted in Election, Election 2008, Religious minority
“In the 2001 election, there were some 850 centres where voter turnout was less than half of the total registered voters. Of these, 49 centres were in Bandarban, 67 centres were in Rangamati, and 36 centres were in Khagrachari. In addition, around 87 centres with less than 50 per cent turnout were in Cox’s Bazaar-3.” Read more…
UV_Admin, December 8th 2008 |
Tags: Election Data Analysis
Posted in Democracy, Election, Election 2008
“Let’s now look at who benefited from these anomalies in 2001. In that election, there were 111 centres with over 100 per cent turnout (in some cases there were over 200 per cent turnout). Of these, the BNP-led Four-Party Alliance won 69 against the Awami League’s 35. In addition, in 189 centres, the turnout was between 95 and 100 per cent, with the centres shared by all major parties. As shown in Table 1, while the Alliance candidates benefited the most, the League was hardly without blemish.” Read more…
UV_Admin, December 7th 2008 |
Tags: Election Data Analysis
Posted in Democracy, Election
“One simple example of a significant irregularity is if total votes cast in a centre exceed the number of registered voters in that centre. We find that this is exactly what happened in 111 polling centres in 2001 and in 141 centres in 1996. In 1996, the worst performing centre was Sharanpur GPS (in the then Jessore-5 constituency). Here 950 votes were cast by 111 registered voters, and Jamaat-e-Islami received the most, over three times the number of total voters, in the centre!” Read more…
UV_Admin, December 7th 2008 |
Tags: Election Data Analysis
Posted in Democracy, Election
